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Our Two Cents on Bitcoin Thumbnail

Our Two Cents on Bitcoin

Let’s start out with a disclaimer: we do not consider ourselves experts on cryptocurrency (or blockchain technology). At the same time, it is our responsibility as advisors to understand enough to identify potential pitfalls and/or opportunities, so we offer this opinion. Our primary goal in writing this short piece is to cut through the noise and provide some decision logic. We welcome any feedback, questions, or expertise you might offer this discussion. This paper focuses on bitcoin, presently the dominant and most widely discussed cryptocurrency, but our comments generally apply to all cryptocurrencies.

Why the increased interest in bitcoin? FOMO has reached increasingly high levels as it relates to bitcoin. Earlier this year, we have seen Tesla announce that it purchased $1.5B of bitcoin, and that it expects to soon accept bitcoin as a form of customer payment. BNY Mellon, a custodian like Schwab or Fidelity, will soon hold, transfer, and issue bitcoin for its asset management clients. In short, all of these announcements help increase the belief bitcoin is becoming more mainstream and accepted.

Then there is the simple fact that the price of a bitcoin has increased at breakneck speed from year-end 2018 ($3,742) to year-end 2019 ($7,193) to year-end 2020 ($29,001), and as of November, 2021, is priced over $60,000) (source: Yahoo! Finance).

Even with its increased price and growing acceptance, there are still many questions that need to be answered.

Is bitcoin an investment or a currency? Well, bitcoin is a type of cryptocurrency so let’s start by classifying it as a currency. In theory, an advantage of using bitcoin as a medium of exchange is that, as a digital currency, it is global in nature. You don’t have to carry around a physical wallet with physical currency. At the same time, bitcoin is decentralized from the traditional banking system, meaning there is no central bank or government authority that controls the value of bitcoin (this can be seen as both a negative and positive attribute).

With a traditional currency, like the US Dollar, its value is relative to other currencies like the Euro or Yen. To date, we really have not seen bitcoin referenced or measured in this way. In addition, bitcoin has had much more volatility, especially as of late, than we would expect to see in a traditional currency.

So, is bitcoin an investment? If we think about stocks and bonds as investments, we know, at a minimum, there is a framework for how to value them. With bitcoin, it does not appear to be clear that its price is driven by economic fundamentals, making it exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, to apply a valuation to it.

What are some other challenges with bitcoin? As we stated earlier, bitcoin is not created or controlled by any government or monetary authority. Therefore, in the US, the US government nor our central bank are providing regulation over bitcoin. The SEC, which regulates the security industry, does not view bitcoin as a security (they view it as a payment mechanism and store of value) and therefore does not provide regulation over bitcoin either.

Not surprisingly, there is a dark side that comes with the unregulated nature of bitcoin.  It has been reported that bitcoin is being used for illegal activities including the drug trade and ransomware attacks, with online users looking to hide their identity (in all fairness, there is illegal activity associated with traditional currency too, including the drug trade and money laundering as easy examples).

Another downside of using bitcoin for transactions is taxes. The IRS currently views bitcoin as property (and not a currency), therefore any sale using bitcoin is subject to capital gains taxes.

Overall, while there has been increasing interest in bitcoin, we recommend steering clear of it and other cryptocurrencies at this time.  Because of the challenges in rationalizing a valuation framework, its volatility and lack of regulation, we view bitcoin as more of speculation than pure investment. For investors that understand bitcoin better or simply “want a piece of the action,” it may be acceptable to allocate a nominal amount that would not compromise their ability to attain their financial goals if they lost it, similar to our views on other non-diversified investments.

We recognize our view may turn out to be naïve or cynical, but we are willing to be wrong at the present time. Of course, it will be something we continue to follow and monitor.

East Bay Investment Solutions, a Registered Investment Advisory firm, supplies investment research services under contract.

This document contains general information, may be based on authorities that are subject to change, and is not a substitute for professional advice or services. This document does not constitute tax, consulting, business, financial, investment, legal or other professional advice, and you should consult a qualified professional advisor before taking any action based on the information herein. This document is intended for the exclusive use of East Bay clients, and/or clients or prospective clients of the advisory firm for whom this analysis was prepared in conjunction with the EAST BAY TERMS OF USE, supplied under separate cover. Content is privileged and confidential. Information has been obtained by a variety of sources believed to be reliable though not independently verified. To the extent capital markets assumptions or projections are used, actual returns, volatility measures, correlation, and other statistics used will differ from assumptions. Historical and forecasted information does not include advisory fees, transaction fees, custody fees, taxes or any other expenses associated with investable products unless otherwise noted. Actual expenses will detract from performance. Past performance does not indicate future performance.

The sole purpose of this document is to inform, and it is not intended to be an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security, or investment or service. Investments mentioned in this document may not be suitable for investors. Before making any investment, each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based on the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives.  Information in this document was prepared by East Bay Investment Solutions. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, East Bay Investment Solutions does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or reliability and are not responsible or liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses from its use.  Any such information may be incomplete or condensed and is subject to change without notice.

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